Now that the dust has settled somewhat since the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan, the terrorist group find themselves in the strange position of actually having what they’ve been fighting for over the last 20 years.
But they’re not finding it easy.
Their jubilation at the scrambled retreat of their Western foes now replaced by the harsh realities of trying to govern a country that didn’t elect them into position. Taliban commanders, IED makers and fighters now fill national, regional and local authority positions with no background or even experience with which to assist them. Rewarded for their loyalties during the fighting with status and power but with zero ability to perform in their new roles. With no legitimate money coming into the country, salaries and wages can’t be paid to encourage Afghan citizens to take up positions and get the country moving again.
Women sent home and told not to work. That it is demeaning, un-Islamic and the Taliban are saving them from themselves. Females turned away from universities and colleges as, with no women in the workplace under Taliban rule, why do they need any education? The former Afghan Security Forces hiding among trusted family members knowing that they remain targets for Taliban reprisals. Only last week a former sniper from the British-mentored CF333 was gunned down in the street by a Taliban death squad who had been looking for him for weeks.
And what of the Taliban themselves? I’ve said it before but it’s important to remember that there is no one Taliban. Rather, it is a collective of groups currently unified under one common purpose. And now that they have achieved that purpose, we will soon see the fragmentation process begin. Tribal affiliations, ethnic groupings, familial rivalries, are all elements that have more power to divide than unite. There is also the major factor of their implementation of Sharia law. Some Taliban have a far stricter interpretation of this than others and there will be internecine conflict between the leadership and the rank and file about how this is implemented. When these differences become too great to bridge or compromise, the fractures will start.
Those advocating harsh Sharia implementation will clash with the more moderate adherents. Individuals will proclaim themselves as the true believers and, with their followers, break from the main group. They will stake a claim to territories and governance bringing them in direct conflict with their former leadership and contemporaries. Violence will inevitably follow with each side claiming the moral high ground in the conflict. Loyalties and patronage will be called upon to support the warring factions, further dividing the unity of the Taliban.
And lets not forget that the hardline Islamic State-Khorasan or ISIS-K as it is referred to, remains active in Afghanistan. And only too willing to see the Taliban divided and opportunities to extend their own organisation with disaffected Taliban ranks who believe that Taliban governance of the new Islamic Emirate is not harsh enough. The Taliban already knows that ISIS-K see themselves as the true Mujahideen and heir to the throne of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Further fighting between the groups is a given.
And what of Al Qaeda? The reason that, for all intents and purposes we embarked on this 20+ years of military adventurism? Will they gravitate in numbers back to Afghanistan? A Hijra or migration to the new promised land? Safe in the knowledge that the Taliban will be happy to host their presence once again? The truth is that the Taliban and Al Qaeda are linked by the latter’s oath of allegiance, a bay’ah, that stems from the 1990s and was reaffirmed by Al Qaeda in 2016. Evidence of this has been seen recently in online jihadi chat rooms where extremists are openly discussing relocating from Syria to the new Islamic Emirate, already assured of the welcome that awaits them.
It’s tempting to resort to black humour and see the new Afghanistan as becoming little more than a dystopian Disneyland for terrorists and extremists. But that would detract from the suffering and hardships that another group in the country are already undergoing: The Afghan people. Brutalised and exhausted by decades of fighting and violence, it seems that they are set for another extended period of the same. After the Soviet Union left Afghanistan, the warlords tore the country apart as they vied for power and the spoils of the victor. When the Taliban began taking control of regions and implementing law and order, they were initially welcomed by the long-suffering citizens, grateful for the stability this group provided. Such was the wanton destruction and carnage they’d suffered during the warlords’ fighting.
And, in my opinion, history is probably going to repeat itself as the Taliban fractures into dissident groupings battling for control of the country. Battling with ISIS-K, bringing their Al Qaeda allies into the conflict to support and assist. Attracting defeated and disaffected jihadists from around the globe, keen to prove their twisted commitment to their faith. Pulling in the state actors of Pakistan, India, Iran, Russia, China, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan as the Great Game of history further repeats itself. As we in the West monitor the situation closely for any hint that the country becomes the de facto platform for the planning and launching of terrorist attacks against our nations.
Pessimistic? Perhaps, but in my experience pessimism in these situations usually pans out to be closer to realism than not. To the jubilant Taliban, Afghanistan has added another empire to its list of those who came, saw and failed to conquer. But it would benefit them more to remember this as a lesson rather than cause for gloating. Because the Graveyard of Empires they have inherited has shown through history over and over again, that it is not for the holding. That it favours none, not even the brave.
Not even the Taliban.
